2012年，只是普通的一年吗？还是世界末日！

伤我心太深 · 发表于 2010-12-28 19:27:46

对大多数人而言，圣诞前的一周是最后一段疯狂购物、派对以及和相爱的人聚首的时间。但是2012年的这个时候，也许这就是世界末日。先知预言，在2012年12月21日，我们的地球将遭遇大规模毁灭性打击，再也恢复不了了。

类似启示录的预言在主流文化的边缘存在了数个世纪：古罗马人相信维苏威火山在公元79年的喷发预示着大灾难；罗拔臣曾鼓吹教会被提论，耶稣将在二十世纪八十年代重返地球，非教徒（以及撒旦）将在火湖中被烧死（教会被提论是西方常见的灾难预见，包括灾前被提论、灾中被提论等等，罗拔臣是被提论的狂热者，在海地地震时曾说地震是因为人的行为导致神的愤怒产生的灾难——译者注）；在1997年“天堂之门”（“天堂之门”又称“天门教”，是70年代在美国出现的一个与海尔-波普彗星和UFO关系密切的邪教组织——译者注）的成员崇拜集体自杀，因为他们相信人类将灭亡，海尔波普彗星上的UFO将拯救世界于水火。（如果我们继续回顾，谁能忘记千年虫呢？）现在离2012只有两年了，这种特殊的世界灭亡论是如何兴起的呢？谁能免于灾难？我们会在2012面前惊慌失措吗？

The History

回顾历史

根据NASA的网站Ask an Astrobilogist（向天体物理学家提问）的说法，2012世界毁灭理论是两种说法的融合，一种来源于苏美尔人，一种来源于玛雅人。作家Zecharia Sitchin声称他已经翻译出苏美尔人的文献，里面提到一个绕大阳运行、周期为3600年的行星尼比怒（Nibiru）。而后自称通灵师和外星巫师的Nancy Lieder以此为借口，说她已经收到外星人的消息，地球将在2003年5月毁灭于尼比怒的撞击。而当2003年5月到来，什么都没有发生，这个时间就被修正为2012年12月。

同时，居住于墨西哥和中美洲的古玛雅人（他们在公元250——900年达到他们文化巅峰，以天文学成就闻名于世界）创建了一套精确时间系统，一种被称为长记历的循环历法。根据古玛雅人的计算，历法的2012年12月12日（公元前3114年8月11日后的1872000天）将是一个十分重要的日子，我们的时代将结束并迎来一个全新的时代。也许这不是个巧合，Sitchin 和Lieder（或者他们的追随者）已经把宝压在了这一天并准备随时修正他们的末日时间。

忠实信徒：

在NASA的网站Ask an Astrobiologist,资深科学家David Morrison介绍说自从2009年6月起亚马逊书店已经卖出了不只175种关于2012末日启示的书籍，而信徒都向专家询问答案。2009年11月，Morrison在接受国家地理采访时说NASA已经收到了将近一千个这类主题的问题，大多数人们都表示“相当害怕”。他吃惊地说“我已经知道有两个青少年打算自杀了，因为他们不想面对末日。两位女士两周前说她们打算杀死她们的孩子然后自杀，这样她们就不用面对世界末日了。”

2012灾难说的支持者举出了很多异象，都带有臆想周围科学现象的特征，目的在于说明世界末日会发生。一些人，甚至包括2009年上映的电影《2012》的主创者都预言地球磁极反转，届时地壳和地幔会脱离液态地核，现有的大陆遭受毁灭性打击并重新分布，产生各种各样的自然灾害。另外一些人，极端灾害警告（ultra-alarmist)网站的写手们警告人们灾难将终结所有生命，比如太阳发出致命的耀斑焚尽地球的一切，或者尼比怒撞击地球产生毁灭性大爆炸。但是更常见的情况是，这些用模糊不清的言语表述的警告让人难以理解，更不用说引人注意了。举个来自网站2012Warning.com的例子，如下“11又1/2年太阳耀斑周期性出现，将在2012年达到峰值，届时将摧毁地球的电网系统，再加上尼比怒行星的回归，将毁灭整个地球。2012年12月21日太阳、地球、银河将排列在银道面上，冬至日，白天最短的一天，那将是玛雅纪年的终结。这是每25800年才发生一次的。作为历史记载中第一次，我们整个太阳系将被银河系吞噬。这些宇宙事件组合起来，就成了我们熟知的世界末日。“

事实真相

NASA以及其他类似组织的科学家认为这种幻想性质的恫吓假说应该很容易解释清楚。当然，有些事实证据是有效的，比如玛雅人的确有一个长记历的历法，地磁反转理论也的确存在，太阳活动的确在减弱等等。但是所有这些事实本身并不让人感到震惊；而是这些概念被大肆渲染炒作，加上那些偏执专注于世界末日的个人大肆传播，使得2012地球死亡和毁灭的预言得以发展壮大，迅速传播开来。总之，就如Morrison解释的那样，”普通的天文现象都能被那些坚信世界将走向毁灭的人们认为充满了威胁。“

那么这个2012年的传奇之谜最早起源自哪呢？世界一流的天文学家逐条批驳Zecharia Sitchin的”证据“最终全面否定了他的观点，但是仍找不出最终来源。Morrison宣称：”认为尼比怒是一颗行星且被苏美尔人熟知的这一说法遭到了研究翻译古美索不达米亚记录的学者（当然不是Zecharia Sitchin那类人）的一致反对。苏美尔文明的确是一个伟大璀璨的文明…但是宣称苏美尔人已经拥有成熟的天文学体系，或者他们信仰一个叫做尼比怒的神祇，这都是Sitchin臆想的结果。“至于玛雅历法，Morrison认为：”古代历法不能准确记录现在的时间，或者达不到现在历法的精度。一句话，无论现代或古代历法，都不能预言我们世界未来的走向，当然也不能警示诸如精确到2012年的某天将有天灾。我注意到在2009年12月31日我的台历似乎比往常翻过去得更快些，但是我并不认为这是一种末日的预兆。它不过预示了新年的开始。“

所以让我们那些坚信未来两年将是世界最后两年的人见鬼去吧，我们可以确信2012年12月21日你将不必为洪水担忧，不必担心自己成为一个火球，不必担心被银河吞并。更可能的情况是，你将和往常一样做着你的年终计划：和家人坐着炉火旁，在你喜欢的咖啡店里抽取最新的假日豆，或者把礼物堆放着圣诞树下。噢，当那天来临之时，你可能还没写完给圣诞老人的信呢，你应该仍能联系上住在北极的他索要你的圣诞礼物。

英文原版

Apocalyptic predictions have existed on the fringes of popular culture for centuries: some ancient Romans believed that the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in the year 79 foretold cataclysmic events; Pat Robertson preached that Jesus would return to Earth for the Rapture in the 1980s and trap unbelievers (and Satan) in a lake of fire; in 1997, members of the Heaven’s Gate cult committed mass suicide, based on the idea that humanity was about to perish and that a UFO hooked to the then-nearby comet Hale-Bopp would rescue the group from certain ruin. (And the list goes on and on—who can forget Y2K?) With 2012 just two years away, how did this particular end-of-the-world concept originate, who’s espousing it now, and just how afraid should we be?

The History

According to NASA’s Ask an Astrobiologist website, the theory that the world will end in December 2012 is a conflation of two ideas, one derived from the Sumerians, the other from the Maya. An author named Zecharia Sitchin claims to have translated documents describing the Sumerians’ discovery of a planet called Nibiru that orbited the sun every 3,600 years. Then psychic and self-proclaimed alien channeler Nancy Lieder took up the cause, reporting that she had received word from aliens that Planet Earth was in danger of being attacked by Nibiru in May 2003. When that month came and went without incident, the time frame was revised to December 2012.

Meanwhile, the ancient Maya, who reached their cultural apex between 250 and 900 in Mexico and Central America and who were renowned for their astronomy skills, created an elaborate time-keeping system and circular calendar called the Long Count. Based on the Maya’s calculations, December 12, 2012, is a crucial date on which the current era of the calendar, which began on August 11, 3114 BC, and extends 1,872,000 days, will terminate and a new era will dawn to renew the earth. Perhaps it’s no coincidence, then, that Sitchin and Lieder (or the legions of followers they amassed) hitched their wagon to this particular day when it came time to revise their own doomsday timetable.

The Believers

On NASA’s Ask an Astrobiologist website, senior scientist David Morrison stated that as of June 2009, Amazon.com was selling more than 175 books pertaining to 2012 apocalypse theories, and that believers were flocking to experts for answers. In November 2009, Morrison told National Geographic News that the NASA site had already received approximately one thousand questions related to the topic, many from people who were “genuinely frightened.” He was alarmed to report, “I’ve had two teenagers who were considering killing themselves, because they didn’t want to be around when the world ends. Two women in the last two weeks said they were contemplating killing their children and themselves so they wouldn’t have to suffer through the end of the world.”

Proponents of 2012 disaster hypotheses have widely varying visions—often characterized by hysteria surrounding scientific phenomena—of what occurrences, exactly, the end of the world will entail. Some, including the creators of the cinematic saga 2012 (released in 2009), foresee a planetary “pole shift,” in which the earth’s crust and mantle will disengage from its liquid outer core, thus causing monumental disruption to landmasses’ current arrangement and giving rise to all manner of natural disasters. Others, writing for ultra-alarmist websites, warn of life-ending catastrophes, such as the sun’s producing deadly solar flares that incinerate earthlings where they stand, or Nibiru’s colliding directly with Earth in a massive explosion. But more often than not, these warnings are worded so nebulously that they’re difficult to comprehend, let alone heed. One example, from 2012Warning.com, reads as follows: “The 11 1/2 year solar flare cycle will peak on 2012 causing solar flares that can knock out power grids around the world. These solar flares in conjunction with the return of [Nibiru], will cause devastation on the earth. The sun, earth, and milky way will align at the galactic equator, on December 21, 2012, the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year, and the end of the Mayan calendar. This only happens every 25,800 years! For the first time in recorded history, our entire solar system will move BELOW the milky way galaxy. These combined cosmic events, will be the end of the world as we know it.”

The Facts

According to scientists at NASA and other, like-minded organizations, these fire-and-brimstone fantasies are easily explained away. Certainly, some of the facts at hand are valid; for example, the Maya did have a Long Count calendar, pole-shift theory does exist, and solar activity does wax and wane. None of these concepts is earth-shattering unto itself, however; it’s the extreme sensationalization of these ideas, coupled with their propagation by individuals who may be predisposed to paranoia or fixated on world-ending events, that continues to give rise to the current propagation of 2012 death-and-destruction forecasts. In short, as Morrison explains it, “ordinary astronomical phenomena are imbued with a sense of threat by people who already think the world is going to end.”

And what of the original foundations of the 2012 myth? They’re largely unfounded, say top astronomers, who roundly dismiss Zecharia Sitchin’s “evidence” to the contrary; Morrison asserts, “The claims that Nibiru is a planet and was known to the Sumerians are contradicted by scholars who (unlike Zecharia Sitchin) study and translate the written records of ancient Mesopotamia. Sumer was indeed a great civilization … [However, claims] that Sumerians had a sophisticated astronomy, or that they even had a god named Nibiru, are the product of Sitchin’s imagination.” As for the Mayan calendar, Morrison says, “Ancient calendars … cannot match the ability we have today to keep track of time, or the precision of the calendars currently in use. The main point, however, is that calendars, whether contemporary or ancient, cannot predict the future of our planet or warn of things to happen on a specific date such as 2012. I note that my desk calendar ends much sooner, on December 31, 2009, but I do not interpret this as a prediction of Armageddon. It is just the beginning of a new year.”

So, as we kick off what some fearmongers believe are the last couple years of life on Earth, rest assured that December 21, 2012, will most likely not be a day on which you will have to run from a global flood, become a human fireball, or be swallowed up by the Milky Way. Chances are, you’ll be doing the same things you may be planning for this year: sitting by the fire with your family, sampling the new holiday beans at your favorite coffee shop, or wrapping gifts to stack under the tree. Oh, and if that date rolls around and you haven’t written your annual letter to Santa yet, you should still be able to reach him at the North Pole.