2011年是中国最艰难的一年

伤我心太深

1982年出品的《危险的生活》是我最喜爱的几部电影之一，它由彼得.威尔执导，当时尚显稚嫩的梅尔.吉布森和西格尼.韦弗主演。影片情节设定在1965年的印度尼西亚，共产党政变企图落空前夕，正是那场政变导致了苏哈托上台，以及此后这个国家长达三十年的铁腕统治。这是一个位于变革的十字路口的年代，这部电影的成功之处恰在于，它生动的反映了当时国家内部的动荡状态。因您将走向共产主义或是相反的方向？所有这一切，都通过西方新闻工作者的视角得以呈现，他们尝试捕捉并感受这场正在进行中的急速变革，并将其传递给国内的观众和听众。
展望2011年，中国也站在十字路口。它同样需要为今后如何发展作出决断。尽管已经展示出惊人的经济增长，然而在其他方面，这个国家却明显尚未开化。透过近来一些举动，中国政府已经显示出对于目前社会前进方向的极度不安。实际上，对于理应采取的正确思路，他们正在左右为难。绝大多数中国人感觉，必须进行的政治改革已经被推迟太久。中国总理温家宝常常谈论此事，但在呼吁改革的同时，他却没有表达改革的路径。他是真正的改革支持者吗？抑或只是看到乌云在地平线上聚集，并以此来保护自己的遗产在风暴过后不受殃及呢？此外，为什么政府对于这个问题的讨论感到如此不安，以致必须审查这位总理在接受CNN访问时谈及政改的讲话？你曾听说过政府审查自己总理的讲话吗？如今的当局，在一个破产的理念之中备受折磨，它被称作和谐社会，但却无法拿出任何可行的解决方案。

在经济战线，中国正在为此前的营救计划付出代价。政府将流动性迅速有力的注入经济体之后，受益者多半是大型国有企业，后者利用这笔钱从事土地投机，以获取利益。这种投机行为推动了城市的不动产价格，并正在造成公众舆论的大范围不满。2010年下半年，国有银行系统削减了针对开发商的信贷，并收紧第二套住房购买者的贷款发放。然而，政府虽倡导社会和谐，但这些政策却导致更大的资产泡沫，以及潜在的不稳定因素。

与此同时，大量金钱流入企业家及裙带关系手中，他们中的许多人如今拥有充裕现金，在香港及中国境外，乃至远及欧洲的地方购置不动产和奢侈商品。这便引发了一个疑问：对于上述人士而言，他们到底将手中的钱财视为长期资产，还是感觉这笔轻松得来的财富，不久之后也将同样迅速的离他们而去？

谈及腐败问题，政府还没有拿出令绝大多数中国人满意的解决方案。官方和媒体提出的各种随意性很强的办法，常常让人民感觉生活在一个非正义的社会里。这导致日益增加的诈骗与堕落，甚至更加短期的行为，有办法获取金钱和权力的人深感必须为眼前利益而忙碌。

如今，即便在过去尽量避免参与决策的武装力量，也在表达自己的意见，造成一些"四面树敌"的离奇声明。党的纪律到底发生了什么？和平崛起的叙述又发生了什么？

这仅仅还只是在中国。国际上，中国、美国、日本和欧洲必须对空前的债务水平做出处理。日本的债务已经难以为继，在地中海经济体和爱尔兰的债务影响下，欧元区也面临着史无前例的压力。而美国，则在于上升的债务，以及拒绝创造就业的经济体之间挣扎不已。中国发出的信号表明，该国将协助营救欧盟诸经济体，但这恐怕只是因为它希望将欧元作为美元的替代品。

总体而言，在外界看来，中国似乎非常强壮和健康，但在近距离的审视之下，它却极为脆弱。政府显然希望将和谐至少维持到2012年，届时新的领导层将会上台。而且，在新领导层执政的最初几年，他们还需要安插自己的人马，并提出自己的政策。中国社会可以等待那么久的时间吗？在此期间，北京会安然无恙吗？他们越来越像那位荷兰男孩，正在伸出自己的拇指，试图堵住迅速蔓延的河堤漏洞。

他们能做什么？他们会怎么做？又或者河堤会不会决口，让这位荷兰小子徒劳无功呢？

2011年，一幅画卷将徐徐展开。


原文：
2011: For China, It's The Year Of Living Dangerously
One of my favorite films is Peter Weir's The Year Of Living Dangerously, made in 1982, and starring a young Mel Gibson and Sigourney Weaver. The story is set in Indonesia on the eve of the attempted Communist coup in 1965, and which led to the 30 year rule of Suharto, who ruled the country with an iron fist. The film successfully captures the precarious state of the country, as it stands at the crossroads to change. Would the country become communist, or would it go in another direction? All of this is observed through the eyes of western journalists, who try to capture and make sense what is going on in the rapidly changing country to their home viewers and listeners.

Looking at 2011 in China, it too is standing at a crossroads. It too needs to make decisions about how it is going to develop. While the nation has shown tremendous economic growth, it is, in other ways, remarkably under-developed. The Chinese government, through its recent moves, has shown that it is very uncomfortable with the direction the society is moving, and is in fact, about the right approach to take. Most Chinese feel that needed political reforms have been delayed for too long. Chinese premier Wen Jiabao has been most outspoken about this, but while calling for reform, he has not presented a path for reform. Is he serious about supporting reform, or does he see storm clouds gathering on the horizon, and want to protect his legacy after the storm has past? And why is the government so insecure about discussing this issue that they have to censor the premier's interview with CNN when he discusses political reform? Have you ever heard of a government which censors the interview of its own premier? The current administration has suffered from a bankruptcy of ideas, calling only for social harmony, but failing to come up with any alternative solutions which address the causes.
On the economic front, China is paying the price for its rescue plan. The liquidity which the Chinese government so quickly and forcefully injected into the economy mainly benefited leading state-owned enterprises, who used the money for land speculation to their own benefit. This speculation drove up real estate prices in the cities, causing widespread dissatisfaction among the public. At the second half of 2010, the state-owned banking system cut back on loans to developers, and tightened loans to buy second homes. While calling for social harmony, these policies have lead to even greater bubbles and potential instability.
At the same time, a significant amount of money has flowed to entrepreneurs and the well-connected, many of whom are now flush with cash, and are spending the money in Hong Kong and outside China, going as far as Europe to buy property and luxury goods. This begs the question: Is this long-term wealth, or are these people spending money because they sense that their wealth has come, but will also, just as quickly, go away?
When it comes to the issue of corruption, the government has been at a loss to come up with a solution which is satisfactory to most Chinese. Government courts and media come up with haphazard solutions which frequently leave people with the feeling that they live in an unjust society. This leads to increased fraud and corruption and even more short-term behavior; those who have access to money and power feel that they need to make their move now.
Now, even the Chinese armed forces, who have previously studiously avoided making policy statements, are speaking to the press, making outlandish statements about being "prepared to fight in every direction." What has happened to party discipline, and what has happened to the peaceful rise narrative?
And this is only in China. Internationally, China, the US, Japan, and Europe have to deal with the issue of unprecedented levels of debt. Japan has an unsustainable level of debt, and the euro has come under unprecedented pressure because of the debt levels of the leading Mediterranean economies and Ireland. The US continues to struggle with rising debt and an economy which stubbornly refuses to create new jobs. China has signaled that it will help to bail out the EU economies, if only because it wants to have the euro as alternative to the US dollar.
Put it all together, and although China looks very strong and healthy on the outside, on closer examination, it looks very brittle. It is obvious that the government hopes that its harmony will last until 2012, when a new leadership is ushered in. Even then though, it will take another few years before the new leadership, which is likely to be headed by Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, will put their own appointees in place and come up with their own policies. Will Chinese society wait long enough, or will Beijing be overtaken by events? More and more, Beijing is looking like the Dutch boy, running out of thumbs to stop the rapidly spreading number of leaks in the dyke.
What can he do? What will he do? Or will the dyke burst, making the Dutch boy irrelevant?
In 2011,  a picture will emerge.