中国政府不愿意看到经济硬着陆的三个原因

伤我心太深

中国政府不愿意看到经济硬着陆的三个原因

Zarathustra W.
|
2010年12月27日

<O&nbsp;< o

中国政府总是能够做出令人意想不到的事情。在圣诞节的当天，中国人民银行将一年期的贷款和存款利率都提升了25个基点。今天中国市场的反映也如利率上涨一样令人惊奇，今早的上证指数高位开盘；不过下午开盘后，指数转为下跌。最终收盘时上证指数下跌了1.9%。

今天Mish指出中国可能面临经济硬着陆。我个人分析认为，中国不一定面临着经济硬着陆。我认为中国需要一次经济硬着陆（或者一次经济衰退）来解决目前的通货膨胀问题，这非常像保罗·沃克尔（Paul Volcker，前美联储主席）在20世纪80年代初到滞涨型通货膨胀期结束过程中所设计的经济衰退。但是我们可以设想，由于经济衰退非常不受欢迎，所以没有任何一个政府会故意地引起经济的衰退。事实上，保罗·沃克尔成功战胜通货膨胀的代价是吉米·卡特让出了总统职位。

在我讨论中国经济硬着陆之前，我想先说明为什么中国政府不愿意看到经济硬着陆的一些原因。虽然这些原因不会是全面详尽的，但是我认为它们是最重要的原因。应该认识到，相信中国政府按照他们的意愿无所不能地操控经济增长率的观点是很危险的（我是指实体经济活动，而不是GDP表面的数字），我想有一部分人安心地认为政府不会让经济和房地产市场崩溃。因此我们也会听到政府不愿意发生经济衰退的原因，但是这些原因并不能保证经济衰退不会发生。

1、历史显示如果房地产泡沫破裂将会导致多么糟糕的后果

大型资产泡沫使得中国陷入了进退维谷的地步。一方面，政府清楚地知道房地产价格对于大部分百姓来说依旧非常高。另一方面，房地产市场的崩溃将对整体经济造成极大的伤害。简单回顾一下香港房地产市场、最近美国房地产市场的减速以及日本仍未结束的房地产熊市，我们可以明显地看到房地产市场的爆发通常都将引起强烈的经济衰退和通货紧缩。

2、地方政府依靠土地出让获取资金

尽管我们知道中国政府相比其他很多发达国家拥有更加坚实的财政基础，但是地方政府运作资金不足的问题中隐藏了风险。地方政府的财政赤字很大，而他们高度依赖所谓的“地方政府融资平台”来为基础设施工程筹集资金。地方政府筹集的资金绝大部分都来自于国有控股的大型银行的贷款。由于很多地方政府投资的房地产项目并不产生利润，这些贷款的偿还也是很不稳定的，所以地方政府需要通过出售土地来偿还贷款。很明显，因为地方政府无力偿还贷款，而且中国的银行有大量这样的不良贷款资产，所以房地产市场的崩溃将会对中国经济造成危险的影响。

正如任意一条关于中国经济的统计信息，因为这些融资手段不显示在资产负债表内，所以这些不良贷款资产的真正规模无法知晓。如果房地产市场崩塌，中国的地方政府很可能需要资金救助，而银行的贷款将会蜂拥地流入市场。

3、中国共产主义政权的最大威胁是社会不稳定

通过观察中国共产主义政权，通货膨胀和经济衰退的共同之处就是社会稳定的风险。事实上，1989年天安门的抗议也是部分由于通货膨胀而引起的。同样，中国领导人应该非常了解中国古代历史中，绝大多数中华帝国政权的全部终结都是由于糟糕的经济导致暴力、抗议、革命，以及最终的政权颠覆。我们还应该记住，尽管政府努力阻止着百姓的抗议行为，但在中国每天都有成千上万、大大小小的抗议。

我想再次强调政府不会是无所不能的。他们可以“制造”GDP的统计数据，但是不能在实体经济上造假。他们不希望发生经济衰退，但是这不意味着经济衰退不会发生。

Here Are The Three Reasons The Chinese Government Will Not Allow A Hard Landing 中国经济硬着陆：为什么不可能

Here Are The Three Reasons The Chinese Government Will Not Allow A HardLanding

Zarathustra W., Also Sprach Analyst | Dec.27, 2010, 9:38 AM

China always surprises people with oddthings.
On the Christmas day, thePeople’s Bank of China raised interest rates by 25 basis points for bothone-year lending and deposit.
Today’smarket reactions in China were as surprising as the rate hike itself.
In early morning, I tweeted that the Shanghaimarket opened higher in the morning.
Butas the afternoon session opened, the index turned negative.
The market, at last, got crushed and closed1.9% lower.

Mish pointed out today that China may facehard landing.
In my own analyses, I didnot pointed out that China faces a hard landing.
Rather, they need a hard landing (or arecession) to contain their inflation problem, very much like Paul Volckerengineered two recessions in the early 1980s to end the era ofstagflation.
But just to imagine, nogovernment will deliberately engineer a recession as it will be veryunpopular.
As a matter of fact, whilePaul Volcker succeeded in fighting inflation, that cost Jimmy Carter his job.

Instead of trying to make my case for ahard landing, I would like to point out a few reasons why the government willnot allow that to happen.
These reasonsare by no means an exhaustive one, but I think they are among the mostimportant reasons.
Note that it is verydangerous to believe that the Chinese government is omnipotent in manipulatingthe growth rate as they wish (I am talking about the real economic activity,not the fake GDP number), and I think there are a certain degree of complacencyamong some people who think that the government will not let the economy andreal estate market to collapse.
So hereare some of the reasons why the government will not allow recession to happen,but it cannot guarantee that recession won’t happen.

1.History showed how bad things could get if the Real Estate Bubble Burst

The massive property bubble is creating ahuge dilemma to China.
On one hand, thegovernment knows that real estate prices are still too high for manypeople.
On the other hand, a collapse ofreal estate market will be a massive drag to the economy.
A little review of history of Hong Kong realestate market and recent slowdown in the United States, together with thenever-ending bear market of Japan make it apparent that a burst of real estatemarket will almost invariably produce a deep recession and deflation.

2.Local government relies on land sales for funding

Although we know that the Chinesegovernment is financially more sound than their counterparts in many of thedeveloped countries, there are hidden risks in the local governments that theyare running short of funds.
Localgovernments have huge budget deficits, and they rely heavily on the so-called“Local Government Financing Vehicles” for funding of infrastructureprojects.
The funding largely came fromState-owned big banks, and the repayment is really contingent on the realestate market as many of the projects they invested in will not be profitmaking, such that they need to sell land to repay loans.
It is immediately obvious then, that acollapse of property market will be very dangerous for the Chinese economybecause the loans cannot be paid back, and Chinese banks might have massiveexposure to these bad loans.

Just like any piece of statisticsconcerning the China economy, the true size of these bad loans are not certainas these financing vehicles are off-balance sheet.
If the property market collapse, the Chineselocal governments will probably need to be bailed out, and banks provisionswill probably surge.

3.Social Unrest is the Number 1 fear of the Communist Regime

In the view of the Communist Regime, ifthere are anything common between inflation and recession, it would be the riskto social stabilities.
As a matter offact, the 1989 Tiananmen protests were at least partly due to inflation.
Also as a matter of fact, Chinese leadersshould know enough of ancient Chinese history that most if not all of theregimes in the era of Imperial China were ended because of poor economy whichled to riots, protests, revolutions, and finally the overthrown of theregimes.
As a reminder, there arethousands of protests in China every day, small and big, despite thegovernment’s effort to stop any of these from happening.

Again, I have to say that government is notomnipotent.
They can make up statisticsfor GDP, but not the real economy.
Theydo not want recession to happen, but it does not mean that recession will nothappen