太阳磁场有减弱趋势 难道冰河期归来？

伤我心太深

这听起来可能让人费解，太阳的研究人员们预测我们的太阳将会再次进入一个沉寂期。

Despite all the incredible solar flare action we've seen in recent months as our nearest star ramps up toward solar maximum, which is expected to occur in 2013, scientists are predicting the next solar cycle (Cycle 25) will be notable in that it might not even happen.

太阳预计将于2013年进入其活动高峰期，最近几个月我们监测到令人难以置信的太阳耀斑的活动。尽管如此，科学家还是宣称下一个太阳周期（第25个太阳周期）有可能并不会发生。

Remember the deep solar minimum that persisted for the first two years of this solar cycle? Well, it could get worse than that.

还记得在现在的太阳周期的头两年太阳持续处于活动低迷期吗？情况可能比这更糟糕。

This finding was announced today at the 2011 meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, being held at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces.

今天，这些发现在Las Cruces 的新墨西哥州立大学召开的美国天文学会太阳物理分会的会议上被公诸于众。

Researchers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory have collected a number of observations of the solar interior, visible surface and corona (the sun's atmosphere), and all the data points to an incredibly lazy sun in the near future.

来自美国国家太阳天文台（NSO）和美国空军研究所的研究人员搜集了大量对于太阳内部，表面和日冕（太阳大气）的观察结果，以及所有能预示太阳在不久的将来会陷入沉寂期的数据资料。

MY TAKE: What's Wrong With Our Sun?

相关文章：我们的太阳怎么了？

Sunspot Hibernation?

太阳黑子进入冬眠期？

"This is highly unusual and unexpected," Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, said in a conference press release. "But the fact that three completely different views of the sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation."

Frank Hill， 美国国家太阳天文台太阳观测网络的副主管在一次新闻发布会上表示：“这一切都极不寻常，也是我们完全没有预料到的，但是站在3个完全不同的角度，都有强有力的证据证明太阳黑子周期可能正在进入冬眠期，”“

This conclusion is based on three separate, but related, fields of solar study.

这些结论是基于3个独立，但是相关的的研究领域得出的。

First, solar astronomers using the Global Oscillation Network Group observing stations -- a system that measures pulsations on the solar surface to understand the internal structure of the sun -- have not detected the sun's "torsional oscillation."

首先，天文学家们使用了全球振荡监测网（Global Oscillation Network Group）的监测系统，通过测量太阳表面的脉动来了解太阳的内部结构，结果并未发现太阳的“扭转振动”。

This east-west flow of plasma inside the sun normally indicates the onset of sunspot formation for the next solar cycle. Before Cycle 24 commenced, the position and strength of the torsional oscillation correctly predicted the late arrival of this cycle's sunspot activity.

太阳内部自东向西的等离子流预示着下一个太阳周期里太阳黑子的形成。在第24个周期开始前，人们通过太阳的扭转振动的位置和强度准确的预知了第24周期内太阳黑子活动的推迟。

But its non-detection points to some rather strange solar behavior. "We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now," said Hill, "but we see no sign of it. This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all."

但是太阳毫无扭转振动的迹象显示了太阳活动的奇怪之处。Hill说：“我们本来指望能在现在观测到沿太阳纬线运动的等离子流，这是太阳进入第25周期的前兆，结果我们什么也没发现。这结果预示太阳将会推迟于2021年或2022年进入第25周期，或许压根不会进入第25个周期。”

ANALYSIS: The Sun Points Radioactive Sunspot at Earth

Weak Magnetism

减弱的磁场

In another line of research -- a study I've been following with great interest for some time -- Kitt Peak astronomers Matt Penn and William Livingston have been studying sunspot magnetic field strength data since 1991. Although 20 years is a very short period in solar terms, they've noticed a magnetic weakening trend.

在另一个我一直都怀有极大兴趣的研究领域中，Kitt Peak天文台的天文学家Matt Penn 和William Livingston 自从1991年起投入了太阳黑子的磁场强度的研究中。虽然这20 年时间对于太阳来说只是短短的一瞬，但他们发现了磁场有正在逐渐减弱的趋势。

For a sunspot to form on the solar surface, the magnetic field needs to attain a certain strength to push the surface plasma aside, exposing the solar interior as a cool spot -- a sunspot.

在太阳表面，磁场强度必须强到能推开表面的等离子体，将温度较低太阳内部的暴露在外，形成一个太阳黑子。

These magnetic forces are monstrous when compared with the magnetic field strength of our planet -- which measures in at less than 1 gauss at the Earth's surface. To maintain a sunspot, the magnetic field threading through the surface needs to be at least 1,500 gauss.

比起地球表面上不到1高斯的的磁场强度这些磁场大的惊人。维持一个太阳黑子需要一个能击穿太阳表面的强度高达1500高斯的磁场。

By Penn and Livingston's reckoning, the decline in measured magnetic field strength inside sunspots in recent years points to future sunspots possessing magnetic fields below the 1,500-gauss threshold. This means -- you guessed it -- sunspots can't exist at all.

Penn 和Livingstong的计算，这些年太阳黑子内部的磁场强度在不断衰退，并会在未来突破1500高斯的阈值。这意味着，太阳黑子将不复存在。

When is this magnetic field weakening predicted to dip below the threshold? Only four years from now, in 2015.

这些磁场的强度预计需要多久会降到阈值以下呢?只需要4年，也就是说在2015年

Coronal Signs

日冕

In a third line of inquiry, Richard Altrock, manager of the Air Force's coronal research program at NSO's facility in Sunspot, N.M., has noticed a slowdown in the "poleward rush" of magnetic activity in the sun's corona as Cycle 24 has progressed.

在第3个领域的探索中，美国空军日冕研究项目由NSO提供设备支持，该项目负责人Richard Altrock发现了在第24个太阳周期中，日冕中的磁场向两极漂移的速度在不断变慢。

Usually, the magnetic field tied into the corona will drift from approximately 70 degrees latitude at the start of each 11-year solar cycle and move poleward, eventually reaching as far as 85 degrees north. However, due to the sluggish nature of the current solar cycle, it is unknown whether this poleward rush will happen at all.

通常在11年的太阳周期伊始日冕内的磁场从纬度70度左右向两极漂移，最终达到北纬85度。但是因为现有太阳周期并不活跃，磁场漂移是否会发生还完全不清楚。

"A key thing to understand is that those wonderful, delicate coronal features are actually powerful, robust magnetic structures rooted in the interior of the sun," said Altrock. "Changes we see in the corona reflect changes deep inside the sun."

ALtrock说：“要知道，这些神奇美妙的日冕实际上源自于太阳内部的强大的磁场结构。日冕的变化反映的是太阳内部的变化。”

All these factors appear to converge on a common conclusion: Something weird is going on inside the sun, and theorists are currently at a loss to explain the phenomenon.

所有的因素都汇聚成一个结论：太阳的内部正在发生一些奇怪的改变，我们的科学家目前还无法解释这些现象。

But one thing is for certain -- the sun is slowing down and magnetic activity is growing weaker. Could the next solar cycle be the weakest in modern history? Might Cycle 25 not start at all? Are sunspots a thing of the past?

但是有一件事是肯定的，太阳活动变缓慢了，它的磁场强度也变弱了。下一个太阳周期会不会是有史以来太阳最消沉的时期？第25个太阳周期有没有可能压根不会来到？太阳黑子会不会变成历史？

Maunder Minimum 2.0?

蒙德极小期？

Although it might be a mystery, we have possibly experienced this phenomenon before.

虽然这段时期可能非常神秘，但是过去我们可能经历过这一切。

Beginning in 1645, astronomers monitoring the sun observed no sunspots for 70 years. This period is known as the "Maunder Minimum," and it is thought to be tied into a long-term cycle where the sun's magnetic activity shuts down.

从1645年起，整整70年得时间里天文学家没有观测到任何太阳黑子。这段时期被称作”蒙德极小期”（"Maunder Minimum"），这个时期的出现被认为与一个长期的太阳磁场活动完全停滞的太阳周期紧密相连。

On Earth the "Little Ice Age" froze Europe around the same time, and a growing body of evidence suggests the sun's slowdown may have caused the climate to cool.

在地球上差不多同一时期，欧洲处于小冰河时期（ "Little Ice Age"），不断出现的证据表明太阳活动的减弱可能导致气候变冷。

Over the coming months and years, solar physicists will be watching the sun very closely, waiting to see if sunspot activity picks up or shuts down completely. So enjoy the current rash of solar flares and beautiful coronal mass ejections; it might be some time before we see a solar cycle like this again.

在未来的时间里，太阳物理学家将会紧密的观测太阳活动，以期找出太阳黑子会重新出现还是就此停滞。所以好好的享受这些美妙的太阳耀斑和日冕带来的太阳风吧，可能要经过相当长一段时间我们才能再次观赏到他们了。